What Are Bayern Munich’s Chances of Winning the Champions League?

Winning the Champions League

When Thomas Tuchel left Bayern Munich at the end of the 2024 season, it was the first time that the Bavarian club had failed to win the Bundesliga since Jurgen Klopp’s Borussia Dortmund took the prize in 2012. The CEO of Bayern said that a “sporting realignment” was needed after Tuchel’s team trailed in a massive 17 points behind Bayer Leverkusen.

The appointment of former Burnley coach and Manchester City legend Vincent Kompany for the 2024-25 season raised eyebrows. It was no secret that the former Manchester City legend wasn’t in the first three or four names on the list. However, Kompany’s style has galvanised a previously disunited dressing room and given Munich their footballing identity back to a large extent with a high-intensity and possession-based approach, The team scored 29 goals in his first six games in charge. They are now favourites to reclaim the Bundesliga from Xabi Alonso’s current champions.

The squad certainly appears to have bought into the new manager’s style after expressing reservations about Tuchel’s more reactive, counterattacking methodology. Europe has been a different beast although Bayern sit behind Real Madrid, PSG and Barca in the Champions League betting markets.

The group stages showed flaws in transitioning from the domestic to the more rigorous European stage. A 3-0 loss to Feyenoord in the new Group stage of the the UCL exposed familiar defensive weaknesses, something that Kompany struggled with in the Premier League.

The first knockout game was a case in point. Bayern failed to seal automatic qualification in the top eight which led to a play-off against Scottish champions Celtic who had only won six out of their last 40 Champions League games. Munich won in Celtic by a single goal but struggled to break down Brendan Rodgers’ resilient side at the Allianz Arena. The Hoops had some terrific chances to score in the first half before stunning the home crowd by taking the lead. Alphonso Davies’ last-minute goal in extra time saved the day, but the game exposed some weaknesses

Some have argued that Kompany’s methods and lack of rotation lead to more injuries for key players. There was some mitigation in losing Davies and other key defenders to injury while Jamal Musiala has also struggled. The 22-year-old has not looked himself at all but playing through the crisis doesn’t seem to have been the right way forward. Dayot Upamecano is another who could have been managed better in terms of match fitness after going through pelvic, thigh, hip and hamstring issues.

On the pitch, Munich were back to somewhere near their best in the last 16 tie against Leverkusen as Harry Kane scored a customary bullet header and a brilliant penalty in the first leg. The England international is in the top bracket of the competition’s goal scorers and despite injury scares, will be a key player going forward. The acquisition of the tricky and skilful Michael Olise from Crystal Palace is another mini masterstroke, providing an English link-up and understanding with Kane. Olise hasn’t shied away from the stage either.

Kompany was a monumental presence as a centre-back and it’s hardly surprising to see that Upamecano has been by far and away the best defensive presence in the side. He has authority, a pass rate completion close to 95 per cent and will be absolutely key if Bayern are to progress deep into the competition. There is a clearer defensive hierarchy in the team with the Frenchman and Kim Min-jae  working well together.

For all of his faults and confrontational style, Tuchel took Bayern to the very brink of the final last year before an inexplicable error from Manuel Neuer let Real Madrid sneak through late in the game. When the business end of the Champions League comes down to small details and tactical efficiency, there will be no room for performances like the 4-1 defeat against Barcelona in October.

Back then the German media laid into the new boss. GFNG wrote: “If Bayern want to walk out at the Allianz Arena in June for the Champions League final, Kompany will have to be more pragmatic, or they will be exposed once again.” Kompany certainly found pragmatism against Leverkusen with the side beating their closest rivals for the first time in seven attempts.

If they beat Leverkusen, they will then most likely take on 2023 runners-up Inter and then one of Barca, Benfica, Dortmund or Lille in the semi-finals Bayern have the heritage as six-time winners. The great motivational bonus they have is that the final at the end of May will take place at their own stadium. They have unfinished business there after losing to Chelsea in the 2012 edition. Questions still remain about Kompany’s clout at the highest managerial level.

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